Walmart at 7, retail sales at 8:30: the consumer gets tested
Walmart reports before the open and retail sales follow at 8:30. Behind Wednesday's calm index: Merck +12.6%, biotech ripping, semis and cyber down 4-5%.
Walmart’s results land at 7:00 am ET and the US retail sales print follows at 8:30 — two reads on the American consumer inside 90 minutes. Everything else this morning is downstream of that.
Two consumer reads before nine
Walmart confirmed results at 7:00 am ET with a live call at 8:00 am ET, hosted by CEO John Furner and CFO John David Rainey. Consensus is not settled: Benzinga Pro carries 74 cents on revenue of $186.83 billion, while Barchart has $0.73, a 7.35% year-over-year increase. Positioning is worth remembering — after the May 21 print, shares fell 7.3% the next day to close at 121.34, and have drifted 5.0% lower over the 85 days since. Then US retail sales hit at 8:30 am ET, so the company view and the aggregate view arrive within 90 minutes of each other.
Wednesday’s calm index hid a real rotation
Breadth was positive — 59 large caps advanced against 40 that declined — while megacap semis, cybersecurity and a big bank fell 3.5% to 5%. Merck closed +12.6% at 152.20 on 32.5 million shares after it and Moderna reported positive Phase 3 topline data for intismeran autogene with Keytruda in adjuvant melanoma: the first and only combination regimen to show significant improvement in both recurrence-free and distant metastasis-free survival versus Keytruda alone. Biotech and synthetic-DNA names moved hard the same session — Maravai +25.9%, Arcturus +25.2%, Twist +22.7%, Ginkgo +17.8% — with Twist also drawing analyst target increases. On the other side, semis sold off as investors reacted to a Google-Marvell custom AI chip partnership: Broadcom −4.6%, Intel −4.0%, AMD −3.7%, Applied Materials −3.5%. Intel’s 108.8 million shares was roughly three times Broadcom’s volume on a smaller move; no name-specific catalyst has emerged. And a scattering of large moves stands without a story: GE −5.0%, Reddit −4.1%, Citigroup −3.5%, against Coinbase +9.6%, ServiceNow +6.5%, Rivian +6.4%, Eli Lilly +4.5% and Tesla +4.2%.
Cyber fell, and it was not earnings
CrowdStrike closed −5.3% at 201.63 and Palo Alto Networks −3.84%. This was broad tech selling, not a results reaction — CrowdStrike’s next report is August 26, and any June-dated “CrowdStrike drops on guidance” coverage belongs to a different quarter. Truist raised its CrowdStrike price target the same day the stock fell, and reportedly favours smaller names Rubrik and SailPoint as enterprise budgets shift; that is their view, not ours.
Estée Lauder’s beat, and the asterisk in it
Shares closed +16.4% at 98.08 after fiscal Q4 adjusted EPS of 39 cents versus a 32-cent estimate, with sales up 6% to $3.63 billion against $3.54 billion expected and organic net sales +5%. Management affirmed fiscal 2027 organic growth of 3-5% and raised its adjusted operating margin outlook; full-year adjusted EPS was $2.51 against $1.51. Read the composition, though: tariff refunds added 7 cents while the Middle East conflict cut 5 cents, so the refund alone matches the entire 7-cent beat versus consensus. The margin story is separately real — gross and operating margin both improved and restructuring benefits came through faster than expected — but the headline number is flattered.
Overnight: Asia rebounds, banks stay heavy
The Nikkei 225 closed Thursday up 791 points, or 1.21%, at 66,118, led by Sumitomo Metal Mining +10.87%, Toho Zinc +10.71% and Sumitomo Dainippon +8.29%. That recovers well under half of Tuesday’s 1,759.52-point, 2.54% slide from 67,460.73. The Hang Seng was quoted +1.34% at 25,837.20 on a delayed intraday basis. In Europe on Wednesday, the Euro STOXX 50 slipped 0.2% to 6,454 and the STOXX 600 finished flat at 652, with banks falling even as long-term yields pulled back after the US Treasury doubled its buyback program — BNP Paribas and ING each −2.4%, Santander, UniCredit and Intesa Sanpaolo −1.3%. Citigroup’s −3.5% sits alongside that.
What to watch today
- Walmart results at 7:00 am ET; earnings call at 8:00 am ET
- US retail sales at 8:30 am ET
- Deere reports today
- CrowdStrike reports August 26
- Housing starts, Tuesday August 25 at 8:30 am ET (prior 1,239K)
- GDP and PCE, Wednesday August 26 at 8:30 am ET
Not financial advice. iTrading Buddy summarizes publicly available market data and news; every figure above is sourced from the reporting available before the US open on the date shown. Verify anything you act on.