Walmart's 9% Drop and a 30-Year Yield Near 2007 Highs

The long end of the Treasury curve is driving this tape, and Thursday’s session showed it: 75 of the 100 largest US stocks fell, with Walmart down 9.15% on a comparable-sales miss and high-multiple software de-rating in sympathy with rising yields.

The bond market is the story

The 30-year Treasury yield pushed to its highest level since 2007 this week — sources put the peak between 5.31% and 5.34%, with the 10-year around 4.74%. The fiscal backdrop cited is a record $432 billion federal deficit in July alone and a cumulative fiscal 2026 deficit of $1.799 trillion, already above the entire prior year. Treasury moved to cap long borrowing costs by more than doubling repurchases of 10-, 20- and 30-year debt, which sparked a global rally Thursday — and then that reprieve reversed intraday. Everything below hangs off that round trip.

Walmart: raised guidance, worst day in years

Walmart fell 9.15% on 83.5 million shares, more than the next four large-cap decliners combined. The contradiction is the point: revenue rose 5.9%, e-commerce jumped roughly 23% globally, and the company raised fiscal 2027 net sales growth guidance to 4–5% from 3.5–4.5% — yet US comparable sales grew just 2.6%, including a 0.8% headwind in health and wellness from drug price caps. Reuters attributes the pharmacy drag to lower prices negotiated under the Inflation Reduction Act’s Maximum Fair Price programme; excluding it, core US comps rose 3.4%. This was a reaction to comp quality and consumer health, not to the outlook. Kroger, Albertsons and Target fell alongside it.

Software de-rating, not company news

CrowdStrike fell 5.6% — and it was not earnings; the company reports August 26, with consensus near $1.4 billion in revenue. The cleaner read is the group: MongoDB −4.58%, Cloudflare −4.44%, CrowdStrike −5.6%, with Palo Alto Networks down 5% the same day. That is high-multiple software repricing against a rising long end, and it needs no company-specific story. One mechanical note for anyone comparing charts: CrowdStrike completed a four-for-one split on July 2, so any pre-July level in your history is four times too high.

What worked, and what didn’t add up

Crypto was the only clean risk-on pocket. Coinbase rose 7.58% to $172.35 on sentiment around the pending Digital Asset Market Clarity Act — not a vote — with bitcoin around $71,936, up roughly 2% on the day; Coinbase outran the coin on a policy premium. Twenty One Capital (+11.08%) and Gryphon Digital Mining (+12.27%) moved with it. Micron rose 3.97% to $974.33 on AI memory demand, but that is a bounce in a name roughly 20% below its June 25 record close of $1,213.37, and it sits back below $1,000. Less explicable: RTX −3.66%, GE −3.25% and Boeing −3.20% all fell together with no confirmed catalyst, and Morgan Stanley −3.16% is not the textbook bank reaction to a steepening long end.

What to watch today

Whether the 30-year Treasury yield holds near its highest level since 2007 after Thursday’s failed rally in long-dated debt
Housing Starts, Tuesday Aug 25 at 8:30am ET, prior 1,239K
GDP and PCE, Wednesday Aug 26 at 8:30am ET (priors given as levels: 32,475.21 and 131.392)
CrowdStrike earnings, Aug 26, with consensus near $1.4 billion in revenue
Jackson Hole symposium, Aug 27–29, topic “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy”
MRVI, which traded 13.1 million shares on an $8.29 price, and ANDG, up 12.04% to $50.43 on 3.2 million shares

Not financial advice. iTrading Buddy summarizes publicly available market data and news; every figure above is sourced from the reporting available before the US open on the date shown. Verify anything you act on.