Narrow AI bounce: AMZN +4.98%, banks fall again; Netflix tonight

Monday’s rebound was real but narrow. The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.1% to 26,430.89 and the S&P 500 0.4% to 7,690.73 while the Dow slipped 0.1% to 51,966.03, per AP, yet 56 of the 100 stocks and funds we track fell, NYSE decliners outnumbered advancers 1,761 to 945 and the equal-weight S&P 500 fell 0.3%, per The Market Breakdown. The gains sat in a handful of AI names: Amazon up 4.98% after Morgan Stanley named it a top pick, Datadog 5.36%, Palantir 4.36%, Tesla 3.76% and Micron 2.97%, with chipmakers ending an eight-session losing streak but giving back most of their opening gains. Everything rate-sensitive fell as the 10-year yield rose 6 basis points to 5.15%: the big banks for a sixth straight week, utilities, REITs and telecoms. The bounce did not travel overnight. Korea’s Kospi fell 2.8%, Hong Kong 1.11%, Europe’s chip stocks opened lower and Nasdaq-100 futures were down 0.31% at 3:47 a.m. ET, per CNBC. Today GM, GE Aerospace, RTX, Northrop Grumman, 3M and Halliburton report before the open, Netflix, Intuitive Surgical, Capital One, SpaceX and United Airlines after the close, and September housing starts land at 8:30 a.m. ET, a day after the builder index hit its lowest since 2012.

The AI bounce: Amazon, software and chips, but the chips faded

Amazon (AMZN) rose 4.98% to $262.45 from $250.00 on 56.1 million shares, the largest gain among the megacaps and its highest close since August 28, per Investing.com, after Morgan Stanley named it a top pick and raised its AWS growth forecasts to 47% in 2027 and 42% in 2028, tying the revision to higher Nvidia chip shipments, per Yahoo Finance. The consumer discretionary fund XLY rose 1.78% to $114.46 almost entirely on Amazon. After hours Amazon was quoted at $263.20, per the extended-hours feed. It reports October 29.

The software names that were sold on Friday were bought back. Datadog (DDOG) rose 5.36% to $260.36 from $247.11, the largest gain in our 100, after Friday’s 7.19% fall; Palantir (PLTR) rose 4.36% to $194.15 from $186.03 on 23.9 million shares after falling 7.22% on Friday; MongoDB (MDB) rose 3.29% to $348.69, Snowflake (SNOW) 2.77% to $315.35, ServiceNow (NOW) 2.39% to $145.36, Palo Alto Networks (PANW) 1.45% and Adobe (ADBE) 0.77%. Tesla (TSLA) rose 3.76% to $368.06 from $354.72 on 38.7 million shares ahead of its Wednesday report and was quoted at $368.83 after hours; the news feed also carried Elon Musk’s statement that he is giving SpaceX stock to every child in America, per Yahoo Finance, on the day before SpaceX’s own after-close report. Reports tied the broader AI bounce to easing worries about AI capital spending, including a Goldman Sachs upgrade of CoreWeave to buy, though CoreWeave itself gave up its early gain and closed slightly lower, per CNBC.

The chips bounced less than their opens suggested. AMD (AMD) rose 1.76% to $538.05 from $528.75 but opened at $551.78 and traded as high as $554.41, so it gave back most of a 4.8% opening gain; Intel (INTC) rose 2.43% to $92.03 from $89.85 on 101.3 million shares after opening at $94.53; Micron (MU) rose 2.97% to $904.90 from $878.84 after opening at $913.55 and touching $926.81; Broadcom (AVGO) rose 1.78% to $334.59 after opening at $338.75; Applied Materials (AMAT) rose 0.93% to $413.11 after opening at $425.60; and Arm (ARM) closed up 0.11% at $228.05 after opening at $236.59. Nvidia (NVDA) rose 1.38% to $217.09 from $214.13 on 98.4 million shares. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.6%, its first gain in nine sessions, per The Market Breakdown, recovering about a quarter of the Nasdaq’s loss last week. After hours Micron was quoted at $905.26, per the extended-hours feed. The technology fund XLK rose 1.36% to $185.96 and the Nasdaq-100 fund QQQ 1.21% to $718.36 from $709.80 on 37.0 million shares, against the S&P 500 fund SPY’s 0.42% to $766.48 and the Dow fund DIA’s 0.03% fall. The other megacaps were quiet: Microsoft (MSFT) rose 0.84%, Alphabet (GOOGL) 1.05% to $344.18, Apple (AAPL) fell 0.15% to $342.94 and Meta (META) fell 0.55% to $705.44 after trading as low as $693.86, two days before it reports. The pattern across the session, big opening gains in the chips that faded while Amazon and software held theirs, is what a thin relief bounce looks like rather than a broad return to the trade, and the NYSE breadth says the same.

Banks fell for a sixth week while rates hit utilities, REITs and telecoms

The banks that held up on Friday were sold on Monday. Wells Fargo (WFC) fell 2.47% to $81.80 from $83.87 on 17.2 million shares, Citigroup (C) 2.07% to $121.69 from $124.26, JPMorgan (JPM) 1.82% to $333.53 from $339.72, Bank of America (BAC) 1.64% to $50.39 on 42.8 million shares, Morgan Stanley (MS) 1.16% to $178.47, BlackRock (BLK) 0.86% and Goldman Sachs (GS) 0.62% to $875.78; the financial fund XLF fell 0.83% to $55.06. Yahoo Finance reported Monday that the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index has fallen for six consecutive weeks, down 11% since early September, its longest weekly losing streak since 2008, even though the four largest banks’ combined third-quarter credit provisions of $7.6 billion were about 3% lower than a year earlier, loan losses fell 5% and lending grew nearly 10%. The explanations on offer are that persistently high rates eventually squeeze borrowers, with an IACPM survey finding 60% of credit portfolio managers expect global corporate defaults to rise over the next 12 months, up from 40% a quarter earlier, and worry about AI disrupting financial services; Citizens Financial’s chief executive called the rate worry “overdramatized” in the same article. The brokers and crypto-linked names fell with them: Coinbase (COIN) fell 2.72% to $168.45 from $173.16, Robinhood (HOOD) 2.38% to $96.52 from $98.87 after opening at $100.33, and Affirm (AFRM) 1.63% to $72.80, with Bitcoin at $81,584, down 0.6% over 24 hours, per The Market Breakdown. American Express (AXP) was the exception, up 0.90% to $316.41.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose 6 basis points to 5.15% and the 2-year reached 4.77%, per The Market Breakdown, and the rate-sensitive sectors fell in line: utilities 2.0%, real estate 1.2%, financials 0.8%. In our 100, NextEra (NEE) fell 2.04% to $78.17 from $79.80, Duke Energy (DUK) 1.81% to $119.27 from $121.47, reversing Friday’s 2.18% gain, Prologis (PLD) 1.32% to $124.09 and American Tower (AMT) 1.21% to $183.03. The telecoms fell too: T-Mobile (TMUS) 1.89% to $156.09 from $159.10, Verizon (VZ) 1.43% to $44.15 and AT&T (T) 1.02% to $23.20. The long-dated Treasury fund TLT fell 0.74% to $79.46 from $80.05 and the gold fund GLD 0.61% to $379.69. Friday’s other winners also reversed: Procter & Gamble (PG) fell 1.04% to $157.69, Altria (MO) 1.36% to $74.09, Coca-Cola (KO) 0.51% to $93.42 and RTX (RTX) 0.93% to $192.11 from $193.92, giving back a quarter of Friday’s 3.73% gain ahead of its report this morning, while PepsiCo (PEP) rose 1.58% to $133.57. Healthcare fell with the healthcare fund XLV down 0.60%: Merck (MRK) fell 1.59% to $143.63 from $145.95, Thermo Fisher (TMO) 1.54% to $679.38 a day before it reports, Eli Lilly (LLY) 1.33% to $1,240.34 and AbbVie (ABBV) 0.96%, while UnitedHealth (UNH) rose 1.36% to $406.88. Spotify (SPOT) fell 2.21% to $518.76 from $530.46 and Netflix (NFLX) fell 0.96% to $69.85 from $70.53 on 33.9 million shares ahead of tonight’s report, and was quoted at $69.69 after hours. Energy was flat to lower with Brent: Exxon (XOM) fell 0.39% to $178.28, Chevron (CVX) 0.28% to $224.37 and the energy fund XLE 0.64% to $67.80.

Outside the 100: Cleveland-Cliffs up 16.22%, Disc Medicine up 38.85%

Two of Monday’s biggest moves were on company news. Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) rose 16.22% to $14.12 from $12.15 on 88.4 million shares, the fifth-largest gain in the movers feed and by far the largest by volume, after third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $612 million, more than double the second quarter’s $286 million and above its own $575 million guidance, with earnings of $0.28 a share against a consensus of about $0.24 on revenue of $5.61 billion that fell short of estimates; management guided fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA to about $715 million and said it now expects 2027 adjusted EBITDA above $4 billion on higher steel prices, better volumes and lower unit costs, per Investing.com and MarketBeat. Early reports put the gain at 7% to 12% and the stock kept climbing through the session; the closing figure is from the paid movers feed. Nucor and Steel Dynamics edged higher, per 24/7 Wall St., and Steel Dynamics reported after the close.

Disc Medicine (IRON) rose 38.85% to $78.98 from $56.88 on 8.5 million shares, the largest gain in the movers feed, after its Phase 3 APOLLO trial of bitopertin in erythropoietic protoporphyria met all primary and secondary endpoints with no new safety signals, though dizziness was reported by about half of treated patients against 11% on placebo, per TipRanks and QuiverQuant. The company plans to resubmit its application by year-end with an FDA decision expected by mid-2027, which is management’s timeline rather than a fixed date. The rest of the gainers list was dominated by small biotechs, Agios up 11.49%, Arcutis 10.54% and Viridian 9.38%, and chip-adjacent names, AXT up 10.03% and MaxLinear 8.22%. On the losers side Iambic Therapeutics fell 30.9%, Cable One 14.5%, Werner Enterprises 7.9% and Trump Media 8.0%; we found no confirmed news for those moves and leave them as data.

Rates and oil: a 5.15% ten-year, Brent near $110 and a Fed in blackout

The 10-year yield’s move to 5.15% came on a day with no US data except the NAHB builder index, which fell to 29 against a consensus of 31, its lowest since June 2012, with the NAHB citing mortgage rates above 7%, higher gas prices and rising construction, material and diesel costs, per The Market Breakdown. Yields rose in bond markets worldwide, per AP. The Fed raised its policy rate a quarter point in September and meets October 27–28; it is in its blackout period, so no official speaks this week and the bond market is reading the data on its own, with last week’s 3.7% CPI and 6.3% PPI still the reference points, as covered in Thursday’s and Friday’s briefings. Today’s housing starts are the first hard data since the builder index, and the two tend to be read together.

Oil held near its highs. December Brent settled down 0.3% at $109.55 on Monday after an intraday fall of more than $3 on Friday’s US waiver of several Russia-related sanctions, which lets countries such as India buy Russian energy, before buyers returned on Houthi claims of attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities at Yanbu, the Shaybah oilfield and airports in Riyadh and Abha, per Reuters via Yahoo Finance and CNBC; Saudi authorities had not confirmed the attacks and Reuters could not verify them. The November WTI contract, which expires today, rose 2.2% to $103.66, its highest close since September 15, while the more liquid December contract fell 0.5% to $98.54, so the “WTI above $100” headline depends on which contract is quoted. Early Tuesday Brent was up 0.14% at $109.70 and November WTI up 0.25% at $103.92, per CNBC at 3:47 a.m. ET. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said a tanker exploded after hitting a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, per Reuters. The energy fund XLE’s 0.64% fall on a flat Brent day is consistent with the sector having already priced $110 oil on Friday.

Overnight: Korea fell 2.8%, Europe’s chips opened lower, futures mixed

Asia sold the chips that Wall Street bought. Korea’s Kospi fell 2.8% to 5,605.31, per AP, after touching 5,493.24 intraday, with foreign investors selling Samsung and SK Hynix again, per Invezz; that reverses Monday’s 1.8% gain and leaves the index down more than 17% over the past month. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.79%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng 1.11%, the CSI 300 0.58% and Australia’s ASX 200 0.6%, per CNBC, while the Shanghai Composite was little changed at 3,732.29, per AP. Reports cited AI-investment worries, valuations and oil above $100. Reuters reported Tuesday that Indonesia stemmed the rout set off by MSCI’s warning of a possible move to standalone status, and that GCash owner Mynt edged higher in its record Philippine IPO amid the regional selling; we have no verified Jakarta close at the time of writing.

Europe opened lower for a second day. The Stoxx 600 was down 0.3% in early trading after shedding 0.8% on Monday to snap a three-day winning streak, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Technology index down 1.4% at 3:25 a.m. ET, ASML down 2.5%, ASMI 3.3% and BE Semiconductor 3.6%, per CNBC. France’s CAC 40 was set to open lower after Monday’s 1.1% fall, with the FTSE 100, DAX and MIB also seen in the red; Investing.com had the CAC 40 down 0.1% and the DAX 0.4% early in the session, and French sovereign debt had its worst daily sell-off in nearly a month on Monday. The government has imposed nighttime curfews in Paris, Nice and other cities after the weekend’s protests, and Moody’s reviews France’s rating on Friday. UK wages excluding bonuses grew 3.7% in the three months to August, above the 3.6% forecast, ahead of a Bank of England meeting next month at which a quarter-point rise to 4% is expected, per CNBC. US futures were mixed: S&P 500 futures flat, Nasdaq-100 futures down 0.31% and Dow futures up 0.2% at 3:47 a.m. ET, per CNBC, after Bloomberg had Nasdaq-100 futures up 0.2% and S&P 500 futures up 0.1% late Monday evening, so the direction depends on the hour and the Asian session is what turned them.

What to watch today

Before the open: General Motors (GM), GE Aerospace (GE), consensus $1.99 a share on $12.84 billion of revenue, RTX (RTX), Northrop Grumman (NOC), 3M (MMM) and Halliburton (HAL), per Earnings Whispers and MarketChameleon. GE Aerospace fell 0.81% to $311.28 on Monday and its pattern of falling after a beat puts the focus on guidance, per 24/7 Wall St.
After the close: Netflix (NFLX), consensus $0.82 a share on $12.87 billion of revenue against company guidance of about 12% revenue growth, results at about 4:01 p.m. ET and the call at 4:45 p.m. ET, per MarketBeat and Yahoo Finance; also Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Capital One (COF), Chubb (CB), SpaceX (SPCX) and United Airlines (UAL), per MarketChameleon and CNBC. Earnings Whispers counts 46 companies reporting today, 22 before the open and 24 after.
Housing starts and building permits for September at 8:30 a.m. ET, consensus 1.30 million starts after 1.275 million and 1.39 million permits, per Investing.com and Bloomberg, a day after the NAHB index fell to 29. CNBC also lists pending home sales today.
The rest of the week: Wednesday, Thermo Fisher, AT&T, Abbott and Philip Morris before the open, Meta, Tesla, Texas Instruments, IBM and Lam Research after; Thursday, Procter & Gamble, Lockheed Martin, Comcast and Blackstone before, with jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. ET; Friday, American Express and SLB before, flash PMIs at 9:45 a.m. and final October Michigan sentiment at 10:00 a.m. ET, per StockTitan, Newsquawk and Kiplinger. The FOMC meets October 27–28 and remains in blackout.
The November WTI expiry today, with the contract at $103.92 early Tuesday against December’s $98.54 settlement, and Brent at $109.70.
Monday’s after-hours quotes for the bounce leaders, Amazon $263.20, Tesla $368.83 and Micron $905.26, against Nasdaq-100 futures down 0.31%.
France’s open after the CAC 40’s 1.1% fall on Monday and the curfews, and Moody’s rating review on Friday.

Not financial advice. iTrading Buddy summarizes publicly available market data and news; every figure above is sourced from the reporting available before the US open on the date shown. Verify anything you act on.