Palantir +29% Leads a Broad AI Rally Into an FOMC Afternoon
Palantir jumped 29% and Arm 17% as 77 of 100 large caps rose. Oil slid on Hormuz talk, and a Fed statement is scheduled for 2:00 pm ET.
Tuesday’s AI rally was unusually broad — 77 of the 100 largest US stocks rose, with semis and AI software leading and nothing in the decliner column falling more than 3.6%. The context for today is a scheduled FOMC statement at 2:00 pm ET and unfinished Iran–US talks on the Strait of Hormuz.
Breadth, not just a few names
Large-cap breadth ran 77 advancing to 23 declining out of 100 — this was a rotation, not a handful of megacaps carrying an index. Leadership was concentrated in semis and AI software: Palantir +29.45% to $162.66, Arm +17.36% to $280.56, Intel +10.84% to $100.86, Micron +7.62% to $892.67, plus Qualcomm +7.32%, AMD +7.00% and Broadcom +6.61%. What fell was defensive and cyclical rather than panicked: Prologis −3.54%, Nike −2.60%, Amazon −2.32%, UnitedHealth −1.88%, Chevron −1.44%. Caterpillar +5.60% to $876.54 was the one non-tech name in the top ten; no catalyst has emerged for it.
Palantir’s number, and the part being left out
Palantir reported Monday evening: revenue up 93% year over year, US commercial revenue up 149% to $764M, full-year revenue guidance raised to $8.16B from $7.65–7.66B, and adjusted EPS of $0.41 against a $0.33 estimate. CEO Alex Karp called the quarter “otherworldly.” The detail worth holding onto is that CNBC notes the stock had lost 29% this year heading into the print, and analysts framed the move as recovery from a June–July drawdown. A 29% day and a stock at new highs are different things. Intel’s move looks like the same semiconductor rebound rather than fresh news — its Q2, reported in late July, showed revenue of $16.1B, up 25%, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.42 versus $0.22 consensus. The rally carried into Asia, where SK Hynix rose 7%, SoftBank 9%, Kioxia 7% and Samsung Electronics 4%.
Oil, Hormuz and the unsigned deal
Bloomberg reports oil fell on signs the US and Iran are nearing an interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent telling CNBC an agreement could come “today or tomorrow.” AP describes Iran and Oman as “inching toward” a deal. But the accounts diverge: US News reports US and Iranian versions of the talks differ, and a cargo ship was reported struck in the Strait on August 4. Nothing is signed. Chevron’s −1.44% is consistent with the oil move, and it is the piece of this rally most exposed to a headline reversing.
Two movers with a wrinkle
Shopify +21.34% to $122.535 on 20.8M shares in our data — but secondary accounts of Tuesday tag the move far smaller (Yahoo Finance at +5.38%, TradingKey at +3.20%), and Shopify was scheduled to report Q2 before today’s open against consensus of $3.44B revenue and $0.40 adjusted EPS. Read the 21% figure knowing the timing is ambiguous. Wayfair +29.50% to $116.10 followed a Q2 beat — revenue $3.52B, up 7.5%, non-GAAP EPS $0.95, about 3.1% above consensus — with short interest at 18.38% of float. Telesat +36.28% to $54.81 came alongside two separate contract reports: a C$2.3B Canadian Defence Investment Agency award for Arctic military satcom, and a $474M contract expansion from Telesat LEO ULC for additional satellites.
What to watch today
- FOMC statement scheduled for 2:00 pm ET
- Shopify Q2 results, scheduled before the open; consensus $3.44B revenue and $0.40 adjusted EPS
- Any confirmation or collapse of the US–Iran interim deal on the Strait of Hormuz
- Jobs report Friday, August 7 at 8:30 am ET
- CPI Wednesday, August 12 at 8:30 am ET
- SpaceX stock lockup expiration
Not financial advice. iTrading Buddy summarizes publicly available market data and news; every figure above is sourced from the reporting available before the US open on the date shown. Verify anything you act on.