Stocks rally on AI relief and cheaper oil; the oil is already back
The S&P 500 closed at 7,600.50, up 1.48%, with 71 of 100 large caps higher. Oil's rebound says the Iran de-escalation trade is not settled.
Monday’s rally was broad — 71 of the 100 largest US stocks rose, and the S&P 500 gained 1.48% to 7,600.50 — but the story it was built on, Middle East de-escalation, looked shakier overnight as oil rebounded and Tehran denied direct talks with Washington.
A broad tape, and one story doing most of the work
Breadth in our large-cap 100 was 71 advancing to 29 declining, so this was not a two-stock melt-up. The heavy lifting still came from the AI and cloud complex: Oracle +9.22% to $141.85, Meta +6.02%, Microsoft +4.93%, Alphabet +4.88%. Per Yahoo Finance, last week’s Microsoft and Amazon results are the fuel — Azure revenue grew 43% year over year and topped $100 billion in annual sales for the first time, Amazon’s market cap passed $3 trillion, and Meta has now recovered its entire post-earnings drop. The second tier moved with it and without verified news of its own: CrowdStrike +6.12%, MongoDB +6.07%, Affirm +5.76%, Snowflake +4.86% — read those as beta to the relief trade, not as catalysts.
Equities priced diplomacy; oil did not agree
Third-party accounts tie Monday’s move to Trump suspending attacks on Iran and shifting to negotiation, which knocked oil down and cooled energy inflation worries. That story is contested. RTTNews reports Tehran denied direct talks with Washington and said its only negotiations are with Oman over safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and Reuters notes oil rebounded Tuesday alongside a fresh attack on shipping in the Strait. So the equity market is holding a de-escalation trade that the oil market and the shipping headlines are questioning — worth holding both facts at once rather than picking one. S&P 500 futures were up 0.21% early Tuesday; the yen held most of last week’s intervention-driven gains after joint Tokyo–Washington action.
Apple is the outlier, and the number circulating online is wrong
Apple fell 1.78% to $303.42 — the only mega-cap moving against the tape — extending a four-session decline past 10%, which MarketWatch calls its weakest four-day stretch since April 2025. The cause is last week’s print, not Monday: FQ3 revenue of $109.4 billion and EPS of $2.02 beat, but Q4 revenue growth guided to 9–11%, implying roughly $113 billion against expectations near $114.9 billion, with component shortages cited. One widely shared article claims Apple fell 7.35% on Monday; that figure is Friday’s post-earnings drop mislabeled, and the same piece quotes Friday’s close. Our licensed close is −1.78%.
Today’s docket
Before the open, per EarningsWhispers, the list includes Caterpillar, McDonald’s, Pfizer, Merck, Spotify, BP, HSBC, Toyota, Marathon Petroleum and Wayfair. McDonald’s consensus is $3.32 EPS on $7.3 billion revenue against $3.19 and $6.8 billion a year ago, when the quarter was flattered by a Minecraft Happy Meal promotion; Citi’s Jon Tower models US same-store sales down 2%. Pfizer consensus differs by vendor — $0.68–$0.69 EPS on $14.41–$14.45 billion — and this is CFO Dave Denton’s last call before he leaves August 15. Two moves stand out on the docket itself: Wayfair (+14.69%) and AdaptHealth (+15.33%) rallied the session before a scheduled print with no catalyst yet emerging. Boeing’s +8.03% has one sourced catalyst — BNP Paribas upgrading it two notches to outperform; the FAA 737 MAX 7 certification claim in circulation remains unconfirmed.
What to watch today
- Pre-open earnings: Caterpillar, McDonald’s, Pfizer, Merck, Spotify, BP, HSBC, Toyota, Wayfair, AdaptHealth
- McDonald’s against consensus of $3.32 EPS on $7.3B revenue; whether the reported US same-store sales line matches Citi’s −2% estimate
- Pfizer against a $0.68–$0.69 EPS, $14.41–$14.45B revenue consensus range
- Whether oil holds Monday’s decline, and any further shipping incidents in the Strait of Hormuz
- Any FAA or Boeing primary confirmation of 737 MAX 7 certification
- Eli Lilly’s reporting date — sources point to Wednesday, August 5, consensus $8.22 EPS on $20.26B revenue
- Post-close names: reports point to SpaceX and the expiry of its stock lockup; tonight’s exact reporting list remains unconfirmed
- Provisional macro dates from a third-party scheduler, not yet confirmed against BLS/BEA: jobs report Friday, August 7 at 8:30 AM ET; CPI Wednesday, August 12
Not financial advice. iTrading Buddy summarizes publicly available market data and news; every figure above is sourced from the reporting available before the US open on the date shown. Verify anything you act on.