Hormuz deal talk, Iran's denial, and Wednesday's CPI

The Hormuz “deal” running through this morning’s headlines is contradicted by Iran’s own foreign minister, who says Tehran is not currently in direct talks with Washington. The week’s scheduled catalyst is Wednesday’s CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET.

The Hormuz narrative and what Iran actually said

Oil is mixed Monday, with Brent October futures broadly flat at $83.48 as of 2:33 a.m. ET. That calm sits alongside headlines describing traders watching for a Strait of Hormuz deal — but Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran is not currently in direct talks with the U.S. to end the war and reopen the Strait. Citi points to continuing Houthi attacks and threats; Westpac frames this as the sixth month of the Iran war.

The week’s price action shows how much the deal story has been driving crude: on Tuesday a top U.S. official said an agreement could come “today or tomorrow” and Brent fell more than 6% to below $79. On Thursday, after Iranian state media published a restrictive draft plan for Hormuz traffic, Brent rebounded 3.8% to $82.49 and WTI 2.8% to $77.29 — still down roughly 8% on the week.

Friday belonged to software, not silicon

Friday closed with 73 advancing versus 27 declining and a gainer list that was almost entirely software and platforms: PLTR +10.32%, MDB +7.78%, NOW +6.42%, NET +5.57%, with TWLO +24.73%, PUBM +32.50% and SPT +26.28% in the broader tape. Hardware did not join: AMD −1.21% and ARM −1.43% fell, with QCOM +4.66% the semi outlier.

Palantir’s move was a second leg, not a fresh print. The Q2 report landed the prior Monday evening — revenue $1.94B, up 93% year over year, about $136M above consensus, adjusted EPS $0.41, and an FY guide raised to $8.16B from $7.65–7.66B — and drew a roughly 28–30% reaction on Tuesday. Friday’s gain has been tied to a Bank of America note on U.S. commercial momentum and characterized elsewhere as short covering; both are characterizations of a sentiment move rather than confirmed flows.

Corsair: a 35% move on shrinking revenue

CRSR rose 35.42% on Q2 revenue of $314.3M, down 2% year over year — above the $310.5M Street number, but still a decline. The engine was profitability: non-GAAP EPS $0.23 against $0.07 expected, a record GAAP gross margin of 33.2%, adjusted EBITDA of $30.8M, and a raised full-year outlook. This is a margin-and-guidance story, not a growth story, and worth naming as such. Simply Wall St’s modeled fair value moved only from $8.81 to $10.22 while the stock closed near $14.38 — the sell-side framework and the tape are not in the same place.

The other big earnings reactions were cleaner. ABNB +17.43% on EPS $1.37 vs $1.26 and revenue $3.61B, +17%, with gross booking value $27.2B (+16%), nights and seats booked up 10%, net income $816M, adjusted EBITDA up 21% to $1.3B, and a raised FY outlook. TWLO +24.73% on revenue $1.50B, +22% (organic +17%), non-GAAP EPS $1.47 and a raised FY organic growth guide of 13–13.5%. FIGS +26.58% on revenue $196.6M, +28.8% and diluted EPS $0.15 versus $0.04 a year ago — though coverage notes increased refunds contributed to the margin lift, and the raised outlook came despite a new restriction affecting imports from a manufacturing partner.

The payments hole, and the calendar that matters

On a day when three-quarters of the tape advanced, four payments names clustered at the top of the decliner list: MA −2.26%, V −2.15%, AFRM −1.74%, PYPL −1.19%. No catalyst has emerged for the group.

This week’s high-impact print is CPI, Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by PPI Thursday and retail sales Friday, all at 8:30. The recent data is mixed rather than uniformly soft: initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 1 fell to 199,000 against 202,000 expected, which sits awkwardly against the “dismal jobs report” framing in circulation. Abroad, China’s July services PMI came in at 50.4 versus 53.7 expected, down from 54.1 — a sharper miss than manufacturing at 50.9 versus 51.5 — and eurozone June retail sales fell 0.3% month over month against an expected +0.1%.

What to watch today

CPI, Wednesday 8:30 a.m. ET — the week’s high-impact print; PPI Thursday and retail sales Friday, same time
Brent October futures against Monday’s $83.48 level, and any further comment from Iranian officials on whether direct U.S. talks resume
Whether the payments group (V, MA, PYPL, AFRM) extends Friday’s decline or reverses it
Follow-through in Friday’s software leaders: PLTR, MDB, NOW, NET, TWLO
A light earnings day by confirmed timing: 140 reports scheduled, 7 before the open and 8 after the close

Not financial advice. iTrading Buddy summarizes publicly available market data and news; every figure above is sourced from the reporting available before the US open on the date shown. Verify anything you act on.